This photo of the Atacama Desert is courtesy of National Geographic.
The border dispute
between Bolivia and Chile originates to the earliest days of their independence
from the Spanish Empire. War broke out between the two countries in the late 19th
century, but resentment continues. The International Court of Justice declared
in October 2018 that Chile is not required to negotiate Bolivia’s access to the
Pacific Ocean, as it is sovereign Chilean territory. This will undoubtedly cast
a shadow on Bolivian President Evo Morales’ re-election campaign in 2019, who
has used Chile as a scapegoat for much of the country’s domestic problems.
Chile, on the other hand, has mimicked the accusatory rhetoric – and pointed to
the 1904 peace treaty – to get the world on their side. While the War of the
Pacific ended over 100 years ago, the border dispute is still a source of contention
between both nations, and can be attributed to other geopolitical concerns
today. The relationship between Bolivia and Chile will continue to be contentious
until the internationally-recognized border is unequivocally accepted
domestically in Bolivia. By appreciating the decision of the International
Court of Justice, Bolivia and Chile could build a strong relationship by focusing
on mutually-beneficial trade agreements through natural gas, river, and ocean
access.
During Spanish colonization, specific boundaries were
never established between their colonies in the region (Pero-Bolivia-Chile),
thus laying the groundwork for a serious territorial dispute after their
succession (Chasteen,
190). The War of the Pacific,
otherwise known as the Guerra del
Pacifico, lasted only four years (1879-1883), but the terms of the 1904
peace agreement solidified Chile’s position as the victor, granting it control
of the mineral-rich Atacama Desert
along the Pacific coast. While thousands
were killed on both sides, the defeat was
exceptionally devastating for Bolivia’s economy, as it marked the end of their
sovereign access to the Pacific Ocean. Naturally, Bolivia has been fighting to
reclaim control of their lost territory ever since, even celebrating a Dia del Mar (“Day of the Sea”) every
March 23rd.
One Boston University student recently penned an opinion
column explaining how it is actually Bolivia that is better served by the status quo. I disagree with
his notion that by somehow ceding territory to the victor, Bolivia gained better access to the ocean. Who really
came out on top, country A, who annexed mineral-rich coastal land the size of
Greece, or country B, who gained a single railroad that passes through the
country that just defeated them? Given that trucks are used more to transport
goods, and passenger service on the track ended in 1996,
is Bolivia’s access really “enhanced” by this rusting line of track?
This undated map from BBC details the
expansion of the Arica-La Paz railroad,
which was completed in 1913, but has been
defunct since 2005.
Bolivian President
Evo Morales and Chilean President Sebastián Piñera have both openly criticized their
neighbors, and are unlikely to share ambassadors again, as has been the case since
the 1970s. Days before the 1 October 2018 ruling, President Piñera gave his thoughts – in English – on
the case at a Council of Foreign Relations press conference: “We have a treaty
with Bolivia that was signed in 1904, twenty years after all the hostilities
had ceased… That treaty was fully agreed and fully in place. We would hope that
country would honor the treaty they signed.” He continued, “…If you start
opening things that happened a hundred years ago, what would happen in Europe?
In the United States?” He expressed his openness to dialogue, but without
promises to “sacrifice our sovereignty.” His comment starts at 54 minutes.
President Morales is in the midst of his 2019 re-election
campaign, which would be his fourth consecutive term as President of Bolivia,
having held power since 2006. His attempt to remove term limits in a 2016 have
concerned geopolitical analysts at StratFor.
“For a growing number of voters in Bolivia,” one headline reads, “their
president is overstaying his welcome.” They note that while he has been wildly
popular in the past, the failure of the 2016 referendum resulted in
anti-Morales protests across the country. He is facing the possibility of
losing his popular support in 2019, which he was not supposed to be eligible
for anyway, since their constitution only allows a maximum of two, five-year
terms. Nonetheless, President Morales was able to convince their Constitutional
Court to allow him to run for a fourth term.
The popular leader is facing growing resentment at home, and his failure
to convince the International Court of Justice will only hamper his chance to
hold on to power.
After the fall of the military dictatorship in 1990, Chile has established itself as a consolidated democracy, and is unlikely to see democratic breakdown as a result of the rhetoric and policies surrounding the border dispute.
The same cannot be said for Bolivia, whose president is seeking a highly-controversial
fourth-term in office. He became the longest-serving President of
Bolivia in 2015.
In an interview with CGTN, a Beijing-based television
network, President Morales discussed his biggest concerns for his country’s
future. As the first indigenous president of Bolivia, he noted his success with
helping Bolivia’s extreme poverty, and stability of government. “With five
new presidents in the five years before 2006… there was a new president
annually. Never in my life had I thought about being President. I cannot
believe I have been President all these years. It is not my desire, but the
people’s. They use the terms ‘authoritarian’ or ‘dictator’, even though we are
elected presidents with more than 50%-60% of our people’s votes.”
On the dispute with Chile, he noted that the Chileans
needed to respect the treaty of 1866, before the War of the Pacific took place.
“Bolivia was founded with access to the sea. I am very sorry about the events
of 1879, through an invasion Chile took access from us. We stand alongside the
truth and the force of justice. In different occasions Chile has offered
sovereign access to the Pacific Ocean, but they have never fulfilled it. Chile,
sadly, has a policy of delaying. They offer something, then they suspend, then
they withdraw. That is why we went to The Hague.”
The International Court of
Justice, in The Hague, Netherlands, is responsible for settling international
legal disputes between members of the United Nations. Two of those countries,
however, haven’t had official diplomatic relations in decades. This didn’t stop
one country from filing a case against the other back in 2013.
The Silala River, which originates in
Bolivia and flows to Chile, is the lesser-known component of the long-standing
tension between the two South American nations. Andrés Gaudin, a regular
contributor to the pro-American, 501(c)3 non-profit organization, the North
American Congress on Latin America (NACLA) is “an Uruguayan journalist who
went into exile in Argentine in 1972,” which gives him a unique perspective on
Latin American affairs. His latest contribution was published
in 2016 by the Albuquerque-based journal NotiSur
– South American Political and Economic Affairs.
Then-Chilean President Michelle Bachelet submitted a
claim to the International Court of Justice in 2016. With business interests at
stake, Chile wished to define the river as an international water source, thus
requiring it to be shared evenly. Bolivia claims that Chilean businesses owe
over $1 billion USD in tariffs for that water use. This case has yet to be
decided at the ICJ.
Fascinatingly, Gaudin used evidence from public speeches
and one-on-one interviews with high-ranking government officials to better
understand the mindset behind Chile’s 2016 ICJ filing. “On March 23, [Bolivian]
President Morales had made the mistake of going public with his plan, even
revealing key details of how Bolivian lawyers would argue their case in The
Hague.” Chile’s response was predictable: their foreign affairs minister
decided to file first by submitting evidence they have been collecting since
2014. This aspect makes it easier to understand Chile’s decision-making. When
the populist leader began making public promises to rally his supporters, it
served Chile’s interests to escalate the dispute, legally.
Another important aspect of the article was how the
situation was being portrayed internally. “Each government…accuses its
counterpart of doing the same thing: using the dispute to fire up nationalist
sentiment among the general public and draw attention away from domestic
problems,” he wrote. Each country similarly uses taunting (or otherwise
accusatory) language to get their people on their side of the issue, to the
point that even football matches become an extension of the disagreement. While
not mentioned in the article, Bolivian President Evo Morales has made the
confrontation with Chile a key component of his 2019 re-election campaign,
which could see him serve a fourth term. While the International Court of
Justice did not rule in his favor in 2018, the outstanding case with the Silala
River could motivate his base of supporters.
Considering Michelle Bachelet is no longer the President
of Chile, her successor, Sebastián Piñera, has opened the door to continue
negotiations with Bolivia – under certain conditions. Nonetheless, it appears
that the short-term will not see any change in rhetoric from either country, at
least until The Hague reaches a decision. While this article is over two years
old, Andrés Gaudin’s analysis sheds light on the background between the
ever-present strife between Chile and Bolivia. “With no clear end to the
conflict in sight,” he writes, “their dispute over fresh water resources adds
even more fuel to the fire.” Gaudin’s description of the intricacies of each
side’s position over the Silala River is vital to understand the whole picture
of the Bolivia-Chile dispute.
Border disputes are not uncommon, and are
usually marked as dotted-lines on Google Maps.
Of course, these visual
representations of political boundaries depend on
where in the world
you search from.
The military and
the media have played a vital role in the ongoing border dispute. They work
hand-in-hand in many ways - large war games make for great photographs, after
all, especially when they take place inside the disputed territory, near the
port city of Antofagasta. The
Santiago Times covered the effect that the military has with
possibly exacerbating the situation. They noted President Morales’ disapproval
on Twitter: “The military maneuvers [with the United States are] an
imperialistic threat to regional peace.” Chile’s Foreign Minister Roberto
Ampuero responded, “Evo Morales shouldn’t feel nervous about the exercises.
What is should be worried about is the Bolivians’ reaction to his unfulfilled
promise he made in The Hague: Antofagasta will be part of Bolivia and Bolivian
flags will shine beautifully in our Pacific.” President Morales forecasted how
the ICJ’s 12-3 ruling would impact his view: “Bolivia will never allow itself
to be kept from the sea.” Reuters
observed that “Chile currently allows Bolivia duty-free access to the port of
Arica,” but “Bolivia aspires to have a corridor…under its own control.” How the
ICJ decision will effect his domestic popularity remains to be seen, but it
doesn’t look promising.
There is more to
it than water, a fact not lost on the BBC.
“The disputed land has proved extremely valuable to Chile. The nitrate plants
have long closed but have been replaced by some of the world’s biggest copper
mines… Bolivia is rich in natural gas but refuses to sell it to energy-poor
Chile. If they Chileans could buy fuel from Bolivia, it would go a long way to
easing their energy problems and would give Bolivia an important source of
income.” The Spanish-language academic journal, Estudios Fronterizos (“Border Studies”), highlighted
the impact that just initiating a
case with the International Court of Justice had with bringing a “renewed
visibility” to the region, as one would expect. Beyond this, Chile does have
legitimate claims to militarize their northern border with Bolivia and Peru, a
desolate region that not only has a border dispute, but also a drug problem.
“Peru and Bolivia…contain 54% of the cocaine in the world.” While the
prevalence of drugs in the region is not a secret, its presence provides an
interesting security dynamic that can
serve as a talking point for the current and future governments of Chile, as
well as an opening for cooperation with Bolivia.
The mutual animosity over the border has bled over to the
gas sector as well. One professor in India published an analysis
on the role of gas in the region, ultimately resulting in the resignation of the
Bolivian president in late 2003. It is worth noting that Bolivia has “the second-largest
natural gas reserves [in Latin America] after Venezuela.” To better export
their resource, a pipeline was proposed in 2002, but civil groups in the country
disagreed on how the route should lead to the Pacific: through Chile’s
Tocopilla port, or Peru’s port Ilo. “Violent suppression by the Bolivian armed
forces left some 60 people dead,” Professor Gangopadhyay writes. Chile’s
“historical status…has allowed it to hold on to a very rigid, non-negotiable
stance towards this overlapping [gas/sea access] issue.” Chile needs natural gas. “100% of Chile’s gas
imports…come from Argentine gas supplies,” which “came to a sudden halt in
2004, when Argentina decided to reduce gas exports to Chile in order to ease
its own domestic gas shortages.” Considering the instability of its energy
sources, Chile has a lot to gain – and lose – in Bolivia’s increasingly
nationalistic attitude towards its gas reserves.
Borders are an incredibly fascinating, and
while the majority today are pretty unexciting, all do tell a story. Defining
their location on a map has led to brutal wars over the centuries, and the
Bolivia-Chile border is no exception. While all-out war is unlikely today, the
never-ending lawsuits and rhetoric probably won’t end any time soon, even with
the International Court of Justice’s 2018 decision. The dispute is not an
isolated topic, as it has manifested into gas policy, international trade,
militarization, media coverage, aggressive rhetoric, and populist political
campaigns. Progress will continue to be hindered until the current boundaries,
as defined by the International Court of Justice, are accepted by Bolivia.
There is simply too much at stake – Chile’s energy sources, Bolivia’s port access,
and the drug trade – to continue focusing on the results of a 19th century
war.
Some borders disputes are perpetual, and
others end up as frozen
conflicts and create their own
semi-autonomous countries. This is from a
December 2017 visit to Tiraspol, Transnistria, a country
that doesn’t officially exist, and whose
borders are not officially recognized by the United Nations.
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